rough outline of a possible future development of the financial mess

1. banks incur further write-downs
   - in 2008 predominantly on ABS, Financials and Equities
   - in 2009 predominantly on Commercial Mortgages, Credit Cards and Auto-Loans and increasingly on Corporates
   - in 2010 on Corporates, ???

2. as a result, banks' equity decreases further,

3. hence credit to companies and individual remains tight - reduced private demand, reduced investments

4. private demand further reduced through increasing job-losses

5. states have to pour in more money
   - equity for banks
   - fiscal stimulous packages

6. this increases deficits and indebtedness in a context of decreasing tax revenues and increasing social expenditures for jobless citicens

7. more states will run into difficulties to find financing

8. states / currencies may collapse